Recently, the internationally renowned market research agency S&P Global (S&P Global) released the “photovoltaic technology report” pointed out that the photovoltaic industry is in a rapid transition to N-type technology, is expected in 2024, this transformation will enter a critical stage.
Among the many N-type PV technology routes, TOPCon technology stands out for its high efficiency, cost-effective and compatibility with existing PERC production lines, becoming the mainstream of the industry. The report expects TOPCon’s market share to climb to 70% by 2026.
1) Competition stimulates innovation and PV technology accelerates iteration
At present, competition in the photovoltaic industry has intensified, which has also promoted rapid innovation and iteration of technology. The S&P Global report notes that since 2010, component prices and production costs have declined significantly, by 87 percent and more than 90 percent, respectively, by 2023. Under the fierce competition, the photovoltaic industry is also paying more and more attention to more advanced and more efficient N-type products.
Compared with traditional P-type technology, N-type technology has many advantages in efficiency and reliability, including low attenuation, low temperature coefficient, high double-sided rate, and excellent low-irradiation performance. These advantages not only significantly increase power generation, but also effectively reduce the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), bringing higher returns to investors.
2) Low cost and high return, TOPCon is the best choice
Among the many N-type technology routes, TOPCon technology is favored by the industry with its unique advantages. S&p Global report pointed out that the core principle of TOPCon technology is to prepare a layer of ultra-thin silicon oxide on the back of the battery, and then deposit a layer of doped silicon film layer, the two together form a passivation contact structure, effectively reduce the surface composite of silicon and metal contact composite, so as to improve the efficiency of solar cells.
Compared with XBC technology, TOPCon has achieved a significant iteration of passivation technology, and the progress of mainstream battery technology in the past is based on the continuous improvement of passivation technology.
The report also mentions that TOPCon has obvious advantages in terms of equipment cost and production line compatibility. Both TOPCon and PERC are high-temperature processes, which can maximize the preservation of the equipment manufacturing process of the existing P-type battery, which enables TOPCon technology to achieve technology upgrades and significantly reduce production costs without the need to significantly modify the existing PERC production line.
S&p Global also noted that TOPCon will take an increasing share of the market in the coming years as P-type battery manufacturers gradually upgrade their production lines to N-type TOPCon technology. TOPCon is expected to become the most widely used technology route in the photovoltaic industry from 2024, and its global market share will reach 70% by 2026.
On August 16, at the “2024 TOPCon Solar Cell Technology Development Trend Seminar” hosted by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, technical executives from Jinko, JA, TRW, Tongwei, One and other companies all recognized TOPcon technology, and agreed that the technology has an excellent industrial ecology, reliable performance and no obvious shortcomings.
3) Leading enterprises layout TOPCon, accelerate market penetration
The characteristics of TOPCon’s high efficiency and low cost make it one of the most cost-effective technology routes in the photovoltaic industry, and from the capacity planning released by relevant enterprises, TOPCon batteries are also the key technologies for expanding production.
Many of the world’s leading PV module manufacturers, including Jinko, JA, TRW, and Tongwei, have increased their investment in TOPCon. According to S&P Global’s forecast, TOPCon will continue to occupy the mainstream position in the photovoltaic industry before 2030.
In addition to superior performance and cost effectiveness, TOPCon technology also demonstrates strong sustainable growth. The next generation photovoltaic technology that breaks the limit of crystalline silicon cells is laminated cells, which has become an industry consensus. Compared with XBC, TOPCon is more suitable as the bottom battery of the laminated battery, and it is more cost-effective, so TOPCon technology has a very strong bottom vitality. In the future, through the application of passivation contact battery technology and laminated battery technology, TOPCon battery efficiency will achieve higher breakthroughs and continue to lead the development of the photovoltaic industry.
Post time: Sep-10-2024