In its latest Energy Transition Outlook report, DNV said a sharp fall in the cost of solar and batteries, accelerating the exit of coal from energy consumption and curbing the growth of oil consumption, would help energy-related carbon emissions (emissions from burning coal, oil and gas) peak this year and halve emissions by 2050. This would be the first time since the Industrial Revolution that people have seen the “dawn” of a decline in energy-related carbon emissions. DNV said that in 2023, the global new solar installed capacity increased by 80%, and in many regions the cost is lower than coal, battery costs fell by 14%, electric vehicles accounted for more than 50% of new car sales, a substantial substitution for oil, this trend is particularly obvious in China. DNV believes that although China is still the world’s largest coal consumer and carbon emitter, but China is in a leading position in the global decarbonization action, in the promotion of clean technology, China in 2023 contributed to 58% of the world’s new solar installation and 63% of electric vehicle sales; In terms of clean technology exports, China remains the world’s leading exporter of clean technology, although international tariffs have made Chinese products more expensive in some regions. However, DNV also said that while the peak of emissions is a milestone in human history, the next step needs to be to focus on the rate of emissions decline, because current efforts to reduce emissions are far from the Paris Agreement climate goals, and use existing tools to accelerate the energy transition, especially for those sectors that are difficult to electrify with new policy support. DNV also said that unlike renewables, which continue to develop rapidly, the development of hydrogen and CCS is still relatively slow, reducing its forecast for hydrogen’s share of energy consumption in 2050 to 4% from 5% previously, and predicting that CCS will only equal 2% of global emissions by 2040.
Post time: Oct-21-2024